Iraq Civil War?

Iraq the Model has an entry on the possibilities of a Civil War in Iraq after the elections.

...The theory of the civil war doesn't match any of the facts on the ground and it's based on visions of people who have never lived among Iraqis and have no real-if any-experience in the region.

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Most of such theories are based on the assumption that the Sunni will not approve the outcome of the elections if the She'at got the majority of votes and that this disapproval would take the form of a widespread insurgency in all the areas inhabited by a Sunni majority and then the She'at would be forced to fight to defend their existence and the whole country gets into an endless circle of violence.The above theory looks strong and points out a possibility that can not be ignored (in the eyes of the theorists). I don't call this over-pessimism but I attribute it to a lack of clear vision and to looking at the case from one angle.

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During the past 18 months, the She'a and the Kurds had the majority (about 80%)of seats in the interim government with most of the decision making positions in their hands but that didn't lead to a civil war and I want to remind you here that the voices that are expecting the boycott and the civil war to happen are the same voices that expected the eruption of an uprising when the government decided to attack the terrorists in Najaf and Fallujah but we saw in both cases that only the terrorists who started the war remained fighting in the cities while the people, the citizens of the cities whether Sunni or She'at didn't show any support to the terrorists and left them to fight alone. So why would we now expect the Sunni to join the terrorists in a widespread insurgency?

I think this has touched on some valid points that seems to be glossed over for the negativity by the MSM. I have no doubt the danger the election poses for those who want to participate in the Sunni Triangle. Intimidation is a powerful tool in Iraq today. I can't image the every day folks just trying to survive to make a better country. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't; except this is for real and for keeps. But until the locals stand up and turn in the 'insurgents', their expoitation of the soft targets will continue even after the election.

I do not agree with the opinion that if the Sunni's boycott the vote, it election is invalid. Nor do I agree the Election should be postponed. The Sunni are given the opportunity to vote. If they choose not to vote, that is their choice. They are a minority with a history of oppressing the masses. Now they want to take their votes and go home...Let them.